Think about how many times you hear that 97 percent or some similar figure thrown around. Back in 2014, David Friedman worked through the original paper that kicked off the "97% consensus" talking point. A recent poll asked citizens to estimate how climate scientists feel about global warming. click a photo to learn more. . On his Twitter account, President Obama tweets: Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Not only does Obama sloppily equate scientists with climate scientists, but more importantly he added dangerous to the 97% claim, which is not there in the literature. A University of Queensland social scientist has confirmed 97 per cent of climate scientists agree global warming is caused by people. The 97% consensus of scientists, when used without limitation to climate scientists, is false. In Kerrys mind, 97% of climate scientists said whatever Kerry wants them to have said. Pointing to a lack of unanimity on the "gateway belief" finding, Mooney concluded, "So in sum - 97 percent of scientists may agree about climate change, but scientific agreement about how to get people to accept that is significantly lower." 10 (2015) 094025, pp 112, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025 (2015). Several studies have shown that people who are aware of scientific consensus on human-caused global warming are more likely to support government action to curb greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. These scientific organizations have not issued statements in a void; they echo the findings of individual papers . It is tempting for a. Here's what the 97 percent statistic *really* means. This is a fairly clear statement97 percent of the papers surveyed endorsed the view that man-made greenhouse gases were the main causemain in common usage meaning more than 50 percent. Multiple independent instrumental datasets show that the climate system is warming. 97% of Climate Scientists Really Do Agree. An important consideration in this discussion is that we are attempting to define a single number to represent a range of opinions which have many nuances. Cook had created a category called explicit endorsement without quantificationthat is, papers in which the author, by Cooks admission, did not say whether 1 percent or 50 percent or 100 percent of the warming was caused by man. Last May, the White House tweeted: "Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and . Excluded from Oreskess list were countless research papers that show that global temperatures were similar or even higher during the Holocene Climate Optimum and the Medieval Warm Period when atmospheric CO2 levels were much lower than today; that solar variability is a key driver of recent climate change; and that climate modeling is highly uncertain. Further, even using the three key words she actually used, global climate change, brought up [not 928 but] 1,247 documents, of which 1,117 included abstracts. Most people in the climate space are familiar with what we call the "consensus message": 97% of climate scientists agree that human-caused global warming is happening. We fully anticipate that climate contrarians will respond by saying "we don't dispute that humans cause some global warming." Skeptical Science also has a new page of consensus graphics. decided to compare only those scientists who had strong opinions. Peter Doran and Maggie Zimmermans Examining the Consensus on Climate Change (EOS, January 2009), concluded, It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes. However, Doran and Zimmerman counted only 79 out of the 3,146 responses to their survey in determining the alleged consensus, and the two questions asked in the survey were framed such that even the most ardent skepticslike Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, and Roy Spencerwould have answered Yes: Another study, Expert credibility in climate change (PNAS, April 9, 2010), by William Anderegg et al., reported that a survey of publication and citation data of 1,372 climate researchers found that 97 to 98 percent believed that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for most of the unequivocal warming of the Earths average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century. But Andereggs study covered only the 200 most prolific writers on climate change, excluding thousands of others, and even the conclusion that humans caused most of the warming doesnt mean that those scientists consider global warming a crisis or that we should spend trillions of dollars attempting to stop it. 97 percent of climate scientists have confirmed that climate change is happening and that human activity is responsible. Science Editor: . Sources: Met Office Hadley Centre HadCRUT4 dataset; Etheridge et al. We decided that it was time to expand upon Oreskes' work by performing a keyword search of peer-reviewed scientific journal publications for the terms 'global warming' and 'global climate change' between the years 1991 and 2011. US researchers examined the peer-reviewed literature and found more than 99% of climate scientists now endorse the evidence for human-induced climate change. $3,914 (AUD)/yr. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate". .. For example, a study which takes it for granted that global warming will continue for the foreseeable future could easily be put into the implicit endorsement category; there is no reason to expect global warming to continue indefinitely unless humans are causing it. 107 no. If that is the case, the first 2 categories represent scientists who believe man is causing all or most of the warming (986), while those in categories 6 and 7 believe man is causing none or almost none (24). Is climatologist a good career? Kerry has gone so far as to say that 97 percent of peer-reviewed climate studies confirm that climate change is happening and that human activity is largely responsible. This is patently wrong, since the Cook study and others showed that the majority of papers take no position. 97% of scientists agree that climate change is human-caused Published 9 years ago on May 16, 2013 By Blue & Green Tomorrow A survey of over 4,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers has found almost unanimous consensus that humans are responsible for rising temperatures. Cook is able to demonstrate only that a relative handful endorse the view that the Earth is warming up and human emissions of greenhouse gases are the main cause. Cook calls this explicit endorsement with quantification (quantification meaning 50 percent or more). 41 related questions found. Yep! Senior Producer: Climate change: human disaster looms, claims new research, Global warming has not stalled, insists world's best-known climate scientist, Climate research nearly unanimous on human causes, survey finds, Record 400ppm CO2 milestone 'feels like we're moving into another era', Australia's 'unpopular' carbon price isn't to blame for Labor's poor polling, a new survey in the journal Environmental Research Letters, that statement is actually too conservative. But the most important result of this study is that almost 8,000 had no opinion or were uncertain. The volunteers were a very internationally diverse group. As Benny Peiser pointed out in a letter to Science (Submission ID: 56001) that Science declined to publish but that the Cornwall Alliance summarized in 2006: Oreskes claimed that an analysis of 928 abstracts in the ISI database containing the phrase climate change proved the alleged consensus. If that is the case, the first 2 categories represent scientists who believe man is causing all or most of the warming (986), while those in categories 6 and 7 believe man is causing none or almost none (24). A year later, in an article in EOS coauthored with her thesis advisor, Peter Doran, she claimed "97 percent of climate scientists agree" that global temperatures have risen since before the 1800s and that humans are a significant contributing factor. Lett. This public discussion was started by Oreskes brief 2004 article, which included an analysis of 928 papers containing the keywords global climate change. The article says none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position of anthropogenic global warming. They found that more than 97 percent of the scientists who expressed any opinion in their papers about the primary cause of global climate change believed that human activity was the cause. However, the paper admits, the 11 944 papers are only a "fraction of the climate literature". This lays out the argument of climate change. UQ Global Change Institute scholar John Cook has brought together the authors of seven previous research studies into scientific agreement on climate change.. A survey of Earth scientists found that among actively publishing climate scientists, 97% agreed that . The MRC is a research and education organization operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Most papers don't quantify the human contribution to global warming, because it doesn't take tens of thousands of papers to establish that reality. Do 97% of climate scientists really agree that humans are the main cause of climate change? ., Nope . Searching just on climate change instead found almost 12,000 articles in the same database in the relevant decade. We found out in 2009, when 22,000 email exchanges between senior meteorologists in the U.S. and Europe where released. The conclusions of the IPCC are the other most often cited support for anthropogenic climate change. But it gets even worse. Carlton et al., Environ. Its Said That 97% of Climate Scientists Agree About Global Warming But Do They? Susan Callery, Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming, The scientific consensus on climate change,, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,, Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming Environ, Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, Meteorologists' Views About Global Warming: A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members, Scientists Views about Attribution of Global Warming, The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists. Pivoting the conversation The most influential and most debated article was the 2013 paper by Cook, et al., which popularized the 97% figure. New Study Confirms Less Global Warming Than Government Claims, The Truth About Mark Zuckerberg's Letter To His Daughter, No, Bernie Sanders, Exxon Did Not Lie About Global Warming, Four Fallacies That Fracktivists Use To Scare You, Ted Cruz Embarrasses Sierra Club President In Global Warming Hearings, Pope Francis's Crusade Against Fossil Fuels Hurts The Poor Most Of All, Met Office Hadley Centre HadCRUT4 dataset, Merged Ice-Core Record Data, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) Online Data, April 2014. The warming is a whopping 0.8 degrees over the past 150 years, a warming that has tapered off to essentially nothing in the last decade and a half. (2006); Merged Ice-Core Record Data, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. This is called the fallacy of equivocation: using the same term (97 percent) in two different ways to manipulate people. In the strict sense, the 97% consensus is false, even when limited to climate. Unlike our team's ratings that only considered the summary of each paper presented in the abstract, the scientists considered the entire paper in the self-ratings. This is. Epstein debunks this shoddy assertion with a simple analogy the side effects vs. overall health risks of vaccinations. The 97% is therefore actually 97% of one third of the abstracts, which means 3 781 of the abstracts analysed. Do 97% of climate scientists really agree that humans are the main cause of climate change? It turned out that she had searched the database using three keywords (global climate change) instead of the two (climate change) she reportedreducing the search results by an order of magnitude. Who knows what the papers say better than the authors who wrote them? The top three values add to 81%, roughly in the range of several other surveys. Rating: NR. Making near-consensus 97 percent of scientists a central element in the pro-policy debate opens up a rhetorical hole that policy opponents can drive a rhetorical truck through. I think not. The 97% Consensus Results Based on our abstract ratings, we found that just over 4,000 papers expressed a position on the cause of global warming, 97.1% of which endorsed human-caused global warming. Depending on expertise, between 91% (all scientists) to 100% (climate scientists with high levels of expertise, 20+ papers published) agreed human activity is causing climate change. Quite possibly the most important thing to communicate about climate change is that there is a 97% consensus amongst the scientific experts and scientific research that humans are causing global warming. The 97 percent claim is a deliberate misrepresentation designed to intimidate the publicand numerous scientists whose papers were classified by Cook protested: Cook survey included 10 of my 122 eligible papers. This is based on over a century of scientific evidence forming the structural backbone of today's civilization. "Expert credibility in climate change," W. Anderegg et al., PNAS, Vol. The claim that there is a 97% consensus among scientists that humans are the cause of global warming is widely made in climate change literature and by political figures. There is a 97%+ consensus that a doubling of CO2 produces an additional ~3.4 Watts/Meter Squared which, all things being equal, results in around a 1 degree C warming. A team of citizen science volunteers from Skeptical Science surveyed over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers finding that over 97% of those papers agreed that humans were the cause of climate change. Dates given are those of the survey, not the publication date. Susan Callery had claimed to have excluded papers on social science, education, research about peoplesviews on climate, they had in fact included many such. 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